Drought

Drought is a creeping and costly disaster. It develops insidiously, and can inflict billions of dollars of damage throughout a state in a single drought year. Further, no region or sector is immune to drought impacts, which can linger for years after the drought event.

Fortunately, with advances in scientific information, we can predict droughts, even months in advance, and take early action to mitigate their impacts. We can also develop drought plans that reduce drought risks and vulnerability, and that provide decision-makers with guidance before, during, and after a drought.

To prepare for droughts and respond more effectively, the Water Center is leading a comprehensive program on drought. Through scientific research, education, and outreach, we provide advance warning of drought events, monitor and assess drought conditions, develop drought plans, and enable decision-makers to reduce the risks and damages of droughts.

The Center Director, Anne C. Steinemann, brings more than twenty years of experience with drought and water management issues, spanning the western and southeastern states. She was appointed to the President's Drought Policy Commission, bringing expertise to workgroups on environmental impacts, monitoring, and assessment. She led the development of the first State Drought Plan for Georgia, and assisted with the State Drought Plan for Arizona. She was also appointed as "Special Adviser" to the Governor of Georgia on drought issues, and designed an interstate drought plan for Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. Back home in the west, she has worked closely with water and energy officials in California, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington to integrate climate forecast information into planning and decision-making.

Primary activities and accomplishments include the following

Climate forecasts for drought mitigation

Forecasts of seasonal temperature and precipitation, provided up to a year in advance, have saved water agencies and industries millions of dollars per year in avoided impacts. In this work, we develop and translate state-of-the-art forecasts, evaluate forecast accuracy, and work directly with decision-makers to provide this information in a format that they are able to use and understand. Recent projects include providing forecasts to agricultural users in Idaho (to determine when to purchase more energy), and to state water agencies in Georgia (to determine when to implement a water rights buy-out program for farmers).

Steinemann, A. "Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Water Management." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 45(10): 1353-1361, 2006.

Alfaro, E., Pierce, D., Steinemann, A., Gershunov, A. "Relationships Between Irrigation-Pumping Electrical Loads and the Local Climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho." Journal of Applied Meteorology 44(12): 1972-1978, 2005.

Alfaro, E., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D., Steinemann, A., Pierce, D., and Barnett, T. "A Method for Prediction of California Summer Air Surface Temperatures." EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85(51): 553, 557-558, 2004.

Steinemann, A. "Using Climate Forecasts for Water Management." UWAA/UWEI Public Lecture, University of Washington, February 23, 2005 (powerpoint presentation).

Drought forecasting systems

UW Experimental Surface Water Monitor

UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System

Drought indicators and triggers

Drought has numerous definitions, and decision-makers need guidance on how to characterize drought and when to take action. This work addresses that need. Indicators are variables that characterize drought conditions, and triggers are indicator thresholds for activating drought responses. We provide methodologies for developing indicators and triggers, using them across multiple scales and sectors, and determining which ones are most effective for decision-making and drought mitigation.

Steinemann, A. "Drought Indicators and Triggers: A Stochastic Approach to Evaluation." Journal of the American Water Resources Association 39(5): 1217-1234, 2003.

Steinemann, A. and Cavalcanti, L. "Developing Multiple Indicators and Triggers for Drought Plans." ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 132(3): 164-174, 2006.

Steinemann, A., Hayes, M., and Cavalcanti, L. "Drought Indicators and Triggers." In Wilhite, D. (ed.) Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues. Marcel Dekker, NY, 2005.

Drought plans and planning processes

From previous droughts, we know that a sound drought plan can reduce drought losses. Drought plans, however, often lack a key element—planning, which diminishes their effectiveness in drought preparation and response. Here, we work with stakeholders to determine drought indicators, responses, and coordination strategies, based on an assessment of drought vulnerability. This process leads to the development and refinement of a drought plan, which includes pre-drought strategies, drought responses, and post-drought evaluations. We completed the Drought Plan for the State of Georgia, and assisted with the Drought Plan for the State of Arizona.

Steinemann (Shepherd), A. "Drought Contingency Planning: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Plans." ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 124(5): 246-251, 1998.