The Economic Benefit of Incorporating Weather and Climate Forecasts into Western Energy Production
In
this project, entitled the California Energy Security Project ("CalEnergy"),
we produced weather and climate forecasts tailored to energy agencies and
utilities, and evaluated the net economic benefit of those forecasts. In
this process, we established collaborative relationships with energy partners,
identified the types of decisions and the decision-makers that 
could benefit
from these forecasts, and worked directly with users to integrate those
forecasts into decision-making.
Primary applications include the following: (a) California Independent System Operator (Cal ISO). We developed forecasts for the occurrence of the "Delta Breeze" effect, which greatly influences electrical load, and calculated that these forecasts could reduce weather-related error costs by approximately $2 million per year. (b) San Diego Gas & Electric. We developed a forecast scheme for calling peak load demand management days, when electrical load is anticipated to be one of the highest days per summer. (c) PacifiCorp. We generated forecasts for the total electrical load expected from irrigation pumps over the summer season, which can be used to determine whether to purchase additional energy in advance. Net benefits of this forecast information were approximately $2 million per year.
Funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Anne C. Steinemann, Co-PI, with Timothy P. Barnett, PI
Above: an image of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from Scripps Inst. of Oceanography.